Like many products that seem destined for international stardom (from the PlayStation2 to digital cameras), electric bicycles look poised for take off on the global market. According to industry insiders, indications are that Taiwan's e-bike manufacturers could be leading the world pack when the launch occurs.

"Although sales of electric bicycles are still somewhat limited on the local market, they have already reached figures of around 50,000 units a year, "says Cash Yang, marketing manager of the local bicycle manufacturer, Merida Industry Co., Ltd. The low numbers are not surprising to Yang. "This is still quite a new product and we won’t be surprised if someday in the future it becomes as hot as mini scooters," he states.

For Irene Chen, public relations manager at the island's other bicycle heavy-hitter, Giant Manufacturing Co., Ltd., the local market is also something of an unknown quantity as far as electric bicycles go. "For Taiwan, this is still a new product and we still have no idea of the market scale," she says.

Giant is rather omnipresent on the world market with its conventional range of bicycles, and sales are expected to reach 5 million units per year by 2003. The company has a production target of only 30,000 electric bicycles this year - to be sold in Taiwan, Europe, the United States and mainland China.

Go Green, Make Green

While the Taiwan market might still be microscopic, analysts say that there is huge potential in the foreign market. One thing seems certain: manufacturers need to tap into the 'green and clean’ thinking of an entirely new generation of consumers in markets like Europe and North America in order to send the sale of electric bicycles soaring.

For Merida, Japan is unquestionably the most valuable market for its e-bikes, absorbing as many as 200,000 to 300,000 units per year. It seems that the Japanese are as conscious about health and stamina as they are about their environment. It is not surprising then, that Taiwan's northern neighbors are lapping up these 'green bikes' from Taiwan as greedily as Taiwan consumers seem to absorb various models of gasoline-powered scooters from Japan.

At less than 100,000 units, Europe's intake of e-bikes trails that of Japan, but overall it still purchases more e-bikes than the U.S. does each year. Yet, according to industry experts like Merida's Yang, "there are some big players out there showing increased interest in the product." For this reason, he feels North America could still become an important market for Taiwan-made e-bikes.

One cannot overlook mainland China where, as the economy revs up and the average annual income rises, a few million mainland legs might soon be getting a boost of electric power from Taiwan. "There are more bicycles in mainland China than anywhere else on earth," says Toshi Huang, president of Gomier Manufacturing. This means that China can only be seen as a growth market in years to come.

However, while potentially lucrative, at present electric bicycles only make a small impact on most companies’ overall annual revenue - less than 5 percent in the case of Merida, Taiwan's pioneer and premier e-bike manufacturer. "Nonetheless, it is one of our core products and we intend to focus on it in the future," says Yang.

Tecco Precision, a new player in the e-bike sweepstakes, is still finding its feet in such "an interesting field," says manager Joseph Chan. "Based on current performance, it appears that our best prospects lie in the United States."

Technical Prowess

As the main player on the world e-bike market, Merida is also a case study of the island's strength and promise in this sector of the industry. The firm's designs and product performance have won high praise from world bodies specialized in the testing and evaluation of electric bicycles. The organizers of the e-bike Winter Road Test in Hamburg, Germany had unreserved praise for Merida's PC550. The test took place this past January and pitted Merida against other prestigious brands such as Italy's Piaggio, Germany's Mercedes Benz and Japan's Yamaha.

The test results showed that Merida's construction solutions were a few steps ahead of the others. When the batteries of the different brands of e-bikes needed to be recharged, the electric parts on the PC550 proved to be exemplary, with the detector and motor running perfectly. The durability of the battery was amazing, and Merida was the surprise winner.

It was arguably the best reference any e-bike manufacturer could expect, since cold weather and the electric motor have always been something of a weak combination. The bikes were tested in real winter conditions, with temperatures hovering between 0 -3 and 5 degrees centigrade. Testing criteria included battery power ratio, range and weight - and the PC550 topped the polls.

While prospects might be good, a few gremlins still lurk in the background - what e-bike makers describe as the 'political threat' from internal combustion-powered two-wheeled vehicles. So far, relevant government regulation has had a limiting effect on the R&D of high-performance power cycles because, as they point out, the scooter and motorcycle industry would not much like to see the growth of the power cycle market.

Technically, battery technology, as has been the case with electric cars, is another isible’ obstacle says Yang, though in this respect, Merida's PC550 outpaced all its top European and Japanese rivals in the January winter road test.

Taiwan manufacturers also comment that young people have yet to demonstrate any passion for the electric bicycle. Prevailing psychology could change, as young people become more health- and lifestyle-oriented, as well as more conscious of the environment and the convenience and safety of getting around on an electric bicycle. Besides, according to teenagers who stop to admire and take a test ride on Merida's e-bike, the product is definitely "really cool".

Advantage: Taiwan

In terms of Taiwan's ability to maintain its lead in e-bike production capability, there are some existing advantages. As is the case in the traditional bicycle industry, all parts for e-bikes can be sourced on the island itself. And when it comes to being competitive, this is again one of Taiwan's strongest points. No other country in the world, analysts claim, can compete with Taiwan in its design capability, production techniques and competitive pricing.

So, how do Taiwan manufacturers see the industry evolving? Most feel short-term growth will be slow, noting that the obstacles to entering the commuter vehicle market are quite large. Huang and Yang both call for more government support to promote the product.

"We need more support from the government to help further develop this great, green product, claims Yang. In the final analysis, both men agreed that the social, economic and environmental priorities will ultimately decide if e-bikes are to be a prevailing trend. One fact concerning the future of the electric bicycle, about which both men also feel quite confident, is that the product is "very well-made in Taiwan."

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