U.S. market consumes an estimated 20.9 million bicycles to close the 20th century. Several sources, including this column, have been predicting that the U.S. bicycle market consumed an estimated 20.6 to 20.9 million bicycles last year, an all time record high for the 20th century! We are using the higher 20.9 million estimate because it reflects what we think is a more accurate estimate of U.S. domestic production.

2000 performance surpasses the 1972-1974 U.S. Bicycle Boom. Our consulting group did some research and was able to find statistics on the U.S. bicycle market going back to 1895. Table A shows U.S. bicycle market consumption, the U.S. population and penetration of bicycles per thousand population at the end of each decade in the 20th century. Statistics were not available for 1910, but we were able to post figures for 1909. The U.S. bicycle market has come a long way over the last 100 years, and ended the 20th century on a very positive note, with market consumption last year of an estimated 20.9 million units and market penetration of 75.9 bicycles per thousand population. Old-timers like me, who remember the U.S. Bicycle Boom of 1972-1974, might also recall that market consumption then hit a record of 15.2 million units, and bicycles per thousand reached 71.9, levels which have been clearly surpassed by the market performance in 2000. This is a great base for building the U.S. bicycle market going forward into the next century.

Table A
U.S. Bicycle Market Consumption
U.S. Population (Millions); Bicycle Consumption (Thousands)
Bicycles Per Thousand U.S. Population
At the end of each decade (1909-2000) of the 20th Century

Sources: Schwinn Reporter February 1978 Eighth Annual Compilation U.S. Bicycle Market Statistics – 1895-1977; Bicycle Institute of America 1992 Bicycling Reference Book; Kiplinger Business Forecasts Databases.

Over the last decade the U.S. became the largest net importer of bicycles. The last decade had its ups and downs, but the increase from 1991 to 2000 is 38.3 percent and bicycle unit consumption has increased by 5.8 million. Table B shows the dominant trend over the last decade of the 20th century has been the shift from U.S. domestic production to imports. The high point for domestic production was 1994 at 57.9 percent of U.S. market consumption, compared to an estimated 2.05 percent in 2000. The U.S. became the world's largest net importer of bicycles based on market size in 1998 when imports hit 87.2 percent of estimated market consumption and the trend accelerated to an estimated 97.95 percent share of the U.S. bicycle market for imports in 2000.

Table B
U.S. Bicycle Market Consumption
1991-1996 Actual, 1997-2000 Estimated (In millions)

Sources: Bicycle Manufacturers Association Statistics 1991; USITC Investigation 731-TA-731 (Final), Table IV-3 for 1992-1995; Bicycle Manufacturers Association and U.S. Department of Commerce Import Statistics for 1996-2000; The Bicycle Council market estimates for 1997-2000.

U.S. imports increased by over 4 million units in 2000. Bicycle imports increased 25 percent in units and almost 20 percent in U.S. dollar value in 2000 compared to 1999. Table C shows this increase and also the decline in average unit value from $51.99 in 1999 to $49.80 in 2000. Table C also focuses on the top four source countries that between them accounted for the vast majority (over 98 percent in 1999 and over 99 percent in 2000) of all U.S. bicycle import units.

Table C
2000 compared to 1999 Total Imports; Top Four Source Countries for U.S. Bicycle Imports

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Import Statistics for 1999-2000; Jay Townley & Associates, LLC Import Analysis.

U.S. bicycle imports from China increased by over five million units in 2000. The top three source countries for U.S. bicycle imports remained China, Taiwan and Mexico in 2000. The number four spot went to Hong Kong in 2000, replacing Singapore from the 1999 list. Between the top three there were significant shifts, as shown in Table D. U.S. imports from China increased by slightly over five million units and over $218 million in 2000 over 1999, while imports from Taiwan decreased by 371,000 units and over $30 million, and imports from Mexico decreased by over 719,000 units and $18 million. There is every indication that U.S. imports from Mexico will decline even further in 2001 given the withdrawal of both Huffy and Brunswick from Mexico and both brands re-sourcing production in the Pacific Rim and primarily China. It also follows that U.S. imports from China will probably continue to increase during the coming year.

Table D
2000 compared to 1999 U.S. Bicycle Imports by Top Four Source Countries

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Import Statistics for 1999-2000; Jay Townley & Associates, LLC Import Analysis.

Did we miss the party? By almost all measures 2000 was a banner year for the U.S. bicycle market. If it was so good, where are the headlines and the celebration of this huge year at the end of the 20th century? All the big increases in units consumed and retail dollars paid and per thousand-population penetration have been over-shadowed by news about the financial problems of the big global players and the decline and fall of brand names that had been thought of as invincible for decades. The U.S. bicycle market and its global supply chain are going through a challenging period of change and transition. The mergers and acquisitions of the last decade have given way to financial crisis, downsizing and more consolidation, and this is what the trade press and the global bicycle industry are focusing on - not the 2000 U.S. market statistics.

However, for the fast, efficient and flexible innovators, there is great opportunity for the future embodied in the 2000 U.S. bicycle market statistics. I don't know about you, but I plan to celebrate the great achievements of the 2000 U.S. bicycle market and the foundation these achievements have built for the future by taking in the innovations for the 21st century at the Taipei International Cycle Show March 31-April 3, 2001 and I hope you will join me!

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